The Edmonton Real Estate Board released their February numbers this morning. No big surprises as we’re still in something of a holding pattern waiting to see how the market will react to when the threat of interest rate hikes finally comes to fruition. As a stats geek, the most exciting feature is that they have revamped their data package shortly after their release last month, and now includes median prices for condos and even the overall residential market. So, we’ll start including those, and eventually phase out the use of averages, as medians are more meaningful.
On the price front, for single family homes things were pretty much unchanged. Condo’s continue to be very volatile, after a dive in the fall, they had rebounded in the early winter, but took another swing down in February… now at their lowest level since last winter.
On the supply and demand front, things continue to follow their seasonal course. Inventory is starting to climb fast, and sales are also starting to pick up after four consecutive declines in the typical fall slow down. Inventory in particular will be interesting to follow should the market turn, as we witnessed after the boom played out and inventory exploded in 2007. Perhaps won’t reach the same heights, but I have a hunch we’ll be well above our current level… which, historically speaking, is already very high to begin with.
And finally we see historical February absorption rates. While lower than the last couple years, we’re still a fair way from balanced… and given all the artificial pumping into the real estate market, that’s troubling, as all the stimuli is obviously making it look stronger than it really is. It will be interesting to see what the spring holds, whether a final round of greater fools will rush in create another frenzy trying to beat the pending change in lending standards, or rising interest rates, or not.
Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:
Sales = 1,184
Since two years ago = -8.0% (-103)
Since one year ago = +10.1% (+109)
Since last month = +33.9% (+300)
Active Listings = 5,449
Since two years ago = -34.2% (-2,835)
Since one year ago = -23.2% (-1,648)
Since last month = +12.0% (+585)
Single Family Homes Median= $355,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -11.3% (-$45,000)
Since one year ago = +6.0% (+$20,000)
Since six months ago = +1.4% (+$5,000)
Since last month = -0.3% (-$1,000)
Condo Median = $218,500
Since two years ago = -13.2% (-$33,250)
Since one year ago = -0.2% (-$500)
Since last month = -1.8% (-$4000)
Residential Average = $316,765
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.7% (-$37,953)
Since one year ago = +2.5% (+$7,795)
Since six months ago = -0.5% (-$1,556)
Since last month = +0.6% (+$1,982)
Single Family Homes Average = $369,573
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.3% (-$56,455)
Since one year ago = +634% (+$22,264)
Since six months ago = +0.8% (+$2,785)
Since last month = +0.5% (+$1,826)
Condo Average = $231,530
Since peak (July ’07) = -14.8% (-$40,378)
Since one year ago = +2.1% (+$4,673)
Since six months ago = -4.3% (-$10,505)
Since last month = -3.1% (-$7,476)
