Edmonton Housing Bust

The August resale numbers were released today… and it would seem the truck nuts around EREB headquarters have climbed into the frame, as even their bravado seems forced in the wake.

After the expected lag, prices have now started to reflect the softness of the market conditions as median prices too a BIG bad dive last month (average prices did too, but by now I hope I’ve taught you if nothing else, that averages are a shitty stat, especially when medians are available). Sales were also down as expected, as is the active inventory, though interestingly they didn’t drop by as much as expected.

The median SFH price gave to the downward pressure and dropped $10,000 last month to $350,000, erasing what was left of it’s early year gains witnessed during the markets last gasp back in the spring. The average also dropped $6,700 in August, and is now down almost $20,000 in the last two months, to now sit at ~$372,000.

Some small consolation can be had by SFH’s, as the condo numbers dropped even more than they did. The median dove $12,000, and now sits at $218,000… which is it’s lowest level since March ’09 (right before interest rates juiced the market into another frenzy). We can see from the graph that any further declines and we’ll be retreading 2006 prices. The average dropped about $8,000, and now sits just above $232,000.

Sales continue their seasonal decline, the preliminary number being announced as 1,195… the final number usually comes in 7-8% above that, so we can expect the final number to reside in the 1,285 range (give or take a dozen). That would put us neck and neck with ’07 for worst August since the turn of the century.

So. Yeah. Not pretty. We’ll explore that deeper when the final numbers so public later in the month though.

This is the one that surprised me a bit… inventory was down, but only by 70 in August (to 8,822), which is far less than the drop seen in July (514). I was figuring we’d have a far larger drop, but perhaps the July number was an outlier… or maybe the August number was… or maybe they both are, I don’t know.

In any case, with a significant drop in sales MoM, and small drop in inventory that will of course launch the absorption rate higher. We were at 6.4 in July, and assuming the sales adjustment falls inline with expectation (~1,285) that would put the absorption rate at 6.9. Again, not pretty.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,195
Since two years ago = -24.1% (-379)
Since one year ago = -29.5% (-499)
Since last month = -7.7% (-99)

Active Listings = 8,822
Since two years ago = -8.2% (-790)
Since one year ago = +36.9% (+2,377)
Since last month = -0.8% (-70)

Single Family Homes Median* = $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = No Change
Since six months ago = -1.4% (-$5,000)
Since last month = -2.8% (-$10,000)

Condo Median* = $218,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -17.7% (-$47,000)
Since one year ago = -3.4% (-$7,617)
Since six months ago = No Change
Since last month = -5.2% (-$12,000)

Residential Average* = $325,588
Since peak (July ’07) = -8.6% (-$30,551)
Since one year ago = +2.0% (+$6,406)
Since six months ago = +2.8% (+$8,823)
Since last month = -1.3% (-$4,146)

Single Family Homes Average* = $372,253
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.3% (-$52,147)
Since one year ago = +1.2% (+$4,520)
Since six months ago = +0.7% (+$2,680)
Since last month = -1.8% (-$6,726)

Condo Average* = $232,230
Since peak (July ’07) = -15.4% (-$42,149)
Since one year ago = -4.2% (-$10,137)
Since six months ago = +0.3% (+$700)
Since last month = -3.4% (-$8,141)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision