Archive for October, 2010


Kiss and make up

Perhaps an odd choice of video to open today’s post, but in a weird way, it’s kind of fitting. Those of you unfamiliar with the show “Oz” would gather from that clip a first impression of the show radically different than what the show really was, and are probably wondering why Juno’s dad is singing and dry humping a dude (FWIW, that’s got nothing on what he did to him in the very first episode)… those with only a passing interest or knowledge of it, probably now think it is far more bizarre and perverse than you ever imagined… and those of us who watched the entire series are hopefully laughing your asses off.

Anyway, on to actual news. So the big story this week was the CREA and Competition Bureau deciding to play nice and avoid going to tribunal. We’ve been following this story for almost a year, as it had it’s ups and downs. So, those of you hoping for a Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez like showdown, ya ain’t gonna get it.

For those curious, I’ve uploaded the actual agreement. Seems that for the most part this entire pissing contest has been over the wording of a few mere sentences. Who knew when semantics crossed with bureaucracy could waste so much money?!?!

Both sides have of course spent the last few days telling the world how they won, or at least didn’t lose. Can’t really give either side the knockout, but I guess I’d have to give it to the Competition Bureau a slim decision on points. Though, time will tell I guess.

Long story short, basically now the MLS will be open those who wish to offer a la carte realtor services. Some argue it always has been, but while that may be true to a point in theory, in practice some regional boards have not. So this order basically declares the CREA and all it’s regional boards must allow such services, and if a boards fails to it can be sanctioned and even suspended from participating in the MLS.

I don’t really think the decision hurts the CREA much, as they had more-or-less been offering this concession already. More than anything, they probably just don’t like all the press this has gotten, and widespread airing that fees and services are largely negotiable. Historically the modus operandi tended to rely on pretty much just herding everyone into the same compensation structure and hoping they don’t dig or ask questions.

Personally, if I was buying I’d look to strike a buyers agency agreement with an agent that would see you pay them by the hour, and that any commissioned offered to the buyers agent by the seller would go straight to me. This removes most of the moral hazard that if rife in the current arrangement.

Of course, most buyers probably wouldn’t go that route, since they think they’re getting the service for free… but most of them probably couldn’t spell amortization, much less explain what it is. Unfortunately our naive and lazy consumer nature is exposed… that’s what they rely on.

So, if you ever decide you’re going to buy, be smart about it. Expect to do some work, know you stuff, and treat it like you’re playing with hundreds of thousands of dollars, cause you are. Many seem to forget that since they’re usually borrowing the vast majority of the funds, but that is your money, and the bank won’t let you forget that… not two months, two years, or two decades from now.

Before I go, just a quick note… I’m doing the final move this weekend, and despite setting it up a month ago, I’m not going to have internet at home until mid-November. So, unless I have an unwitting neighbor with an unsecured wireless network, the site might get a little quiet. Hopefully between the library and flash drives I’ll still be able to throw a few posts up in that time. If you’re looking for something to do, go check out “The Girl Who Kicked the Hornets’ Nest“… though for the uninitiated you’d want to check out the two prequels on DVD first.

The revised sales numbers for September have been released. I guess I shouldn’t call these the “final” numbers, since these numbers seemingly never cease being revised. I have no idea what they’re doing with their numbers, and it’s becoming increasingly apparent that they don’t either. Anyway, enough kvetching, lets get to the stats.

Sales Totals

The revised tally came in at 1,282 for September, down slightly from August, but almost 25% from September last year. As we can see from the graph we’re a little low historically, but still well above the contemporary low water mark set back in ’07, when the market was first turning after the big boom.

Sales Seasonality

Looking at the seasonality, we’ve eked back within one standard deviation of the mean predicted by our year-to-date sales. Given our current trajectory, it looks increasingly likely we’ll be coming in around 16,000 for the year (give-or-take a hundred)… which could make it the lowest annual total in a decade, and lowest since 2000.

Sales YTD

Looking at his historical year-to-date figures, here is a look at those. We’re well below anything we’ve seen since ’04… and we’ve been losing steadily to the the ’01-thru-’03 years over the summer, and when all is said and done for the year it looks like we’ll likely come in below them. We’re in no danger of coming in below ’00 though.

It’s interesting looking at the ’07 figures. We can see that through June that year the sales tallies were HUGE… but then the market turned fast, and sales just hit a wall. It’s an interesting dichotomy, the first six months were obliterating records for those months to the high side… then the second half of the year it’s setting contemporary lows every month by equally large margins. Consumer sentiment is a fickle beast!

Absorption Rate

Finally, lets touch on absorption rate. We’re obviously extremely high historically, but still dwarfed by the ’07 figure… which was obviously the result of extremely low sales as we noted, and inventory levels just shy of 10,000. Interesting note, that September ’07 rate of 9.52 is actually the second highest in modern history, behind only the 10.39 of December ’08.

Our current level is 6.71. Obviously well above where it was a year ago, but actually down a tad from last month when it was 6.87. This is due to inventory dropping a bit, while sales were only down a tad month-over-month. We’ll probably see the rate climb over the fall, as this is typically when sales really start seeing the seasonal forces.

Movin' on up!

Sorry about the lack of updates, I’ve been more than a little busy. I’m in the midst of changing careers as well as relocating (moving about an hour outside the city). Was originally hoping I wouldn’t have to start until the New Year, but they didn’t want to wait that long, so rather than a few months, I have one month (of which only a couple weeks are left now).

So, yeah, my life has been a little bit crazy… add to that a girlfriend that is beyond pissed off and seemingly doing everything in her power to make my life even more difficult, and needless to say my spare time has become nearly none existent. Not entirely sure whether she is more pissed about my moving out of the city, or that I’ll be making a lot less money for a couple years until I finish articling. I imagine it’s probably the money, I doubt she’ll miss me!

As far as the blogging goes, hopefully I’ll have more time to dedicate to it once I get settled. I imagine the first six months will be pretty stressful, but as I don’t know anyone there I may end up with an awful lot of free time too. I guess we’ll find out.

Movin' on up!

Anyway, enough about my sad little life though, on to the stats! The July mortgage arrears numbers were released today, and to continue our theme… those too are “movin’ on up!”

After topping out in December with a new high we’ve been kind of range bound. After the meteoric rise over the prior couple years, we witnessed a sudden reversal over the winter, but then we started creeping up again in the spring, and as of July we had broken through to set another new record high, hitting 0.76%. Up from 0.73% in June, and 0.62% a year ago.

I imagine this is a probably the result of the softening of prices since April, but who really knows, at this point I still thinks it’s too early to officially declare we’re out of our range bound stage. If we continue to see significant declines in prices over the fall and winter though, I would not be surprised to see the rate climb beyond even our current levels, perhaps even significantly.

Nationally the rate continues to hold at 0.42%, unchanged MoM and YoY. The Atlantic provinces continue to run a distant second for highest regional rate, coming in at 0.45% (up 0.01% MoM, down 0.03% YoY), but BC is closing in on them at 0.43% (up 0.01% MoM, up 0.08% YoY).

The next tier consists of Ontario at 0.37% (unchanged MoM, down 0.06% YoY) and Quebec at 0.35% (unchanged MoM and YoY). The our prairie compatriots make out the bottom end, with Saskatchewan rating 0.29% (up 0.02% MoM, up 0.06% YoY), and finally Manitoba is low man at 0.26% (unchanged MoM, up 0.01% YoY).

Yesterday the resale numbers for September were released, and today we’ll take a look at them. Sorry I didn’t get to this yesterday, but I had today off and figured I’d rather knock it out when I had some time. Then I decided it was a good time to do some spring cleaning… I prefer to think of it as six months early, rather than six months late… and as things tend to go when I try to clean, I start by making an even bigger mess, but that’s alright, since I figure I’m achieving better economies of scale.

What was I talking about again? Oh yeah, resale numbers, lets talk about those!

Edmonton SFH Price
Edmonton Condo Price

On the price front, condo’s were trending up over August, both in median (+$3,000) and average (+$6,592), but remain down from a year ago (-$4,000 and -$5,452 respectively). Single-family-homes were kind of the opposite, they were down from August, median dropping -$2,000 and average -$1,599. Year-over-year the median is pretty much the same (down -$100), but average is still up (+$3,009).

So, on the whole we’re continuing to see the YoY numbers drop closer and closer to par, if not already below. We can expect to continue seeing this through the spring until March, when last years price swoon will show up and make the YoY comparison look really ugly. We can already see it in the 6-month comparisons we include below, where in all categories we’re well into the 5-figures for declines.

Edmonton Sales

Sales were pretty much equal to Augusts tally, with the preliminary numbers coming in just down -8 (1,187 from 1,195), and if last months adjustment is any indication that should put the final tally at about 1,300. This remains down significantly from last year (1,674), and quite low historically.

Edmonton Inventory
Edmonton Inventory Change

Inventory is continuing it’s seasonal erosion, down -215 from August to sit at 8,607. Obviously this is still up in a big way from a year ago (+2,575), and extremely high historically. Seems the big drop in July was an outlier as the declines since then have been more moderate, but we can perhaps expect the drops to accelerate a big heading late into the fall, and obviously then we’ll have the big spike of delistings in December, only to come back on line soon thereafter.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,187
Since two years ago = -27.3% (-446)
Since one year ago = -29.1% (-487)
Since last month = -0.7% (-8)

Active Listings = 8,607
Since two years ago = -2.3% (-201)
Since one year ago = +42.7% (+2,575)
Since last month = -2.4% (-215)

Single Family Homes Median* = $348,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.0% (-$52,000)
Since one year ago = -0.0% (-$100)
Since six months ago = -4.4% (-$16,000)
Since last month = -0.6% (-$2,000)

Condo Median* = $221,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -16.6% (-$44,000)
Since one year ago = -1.8% (-$4,000)
Since six months ago = -5.6% (-$13,000)
Since last month = +1.4% (+$3,000)

Residential Average* = $326,499
Since peak (July ’07) = -8.3% (-$29,640)
Since one year ago = +0.9% (+$2,821)
Since six months ago = -5.0% (-$17,108)
Since last month = +0.3% (+$911)

Single Family Homes Average* = $370,654
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.7% (-$53,746)
Since one year ago = +0.8% (+$3,009)
Since six months ago = -4.6% (-$17,819)
Since last month = -0.4% (-$1,599)

Condo Average* = $238,822
Since peak (July ’07) = -13.0% (-$35,557)
Since one year ago = -2.2% (-$5,452)
Since six months ago = -5.4% (-$13,594)
Since last month = +2.8% (-$6,592)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

Here is the latest follow up to Alec Pestov’s paper The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble. This time around he’s comparing the current conditions, with those that presented themselves during the late 80′s when much of the country experienced a bubble (much like this time, Alberta was a little ahead of the curve, and had ours about a decade earlier). So check it out, and if you have questions or thoughts, fire away in the comments section as Alec sometimes drops by and may even address your queries directly. Have a good weekend guys and gals!

The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble – Fall 2010 Musings