Who knew bitter temperatures were a recipe for a sales surge?! Calling it a “surge” may be a bit much, but after several months well below average they the climbed close to the mean in November and come in at 1,120. Evidently the writer of the EREB’s press release didn’t look terribly close at their actual stats, as they seemed to think sales were 1,220, and ran with it. But whatcha gonna do? Never let looking bad get in the way of a good narrative I guess.
After they are revised and whatnot I imagine the final number will come in around 1,200, which would put it in the normal range for November historically. I guess the other item of note is that this was actually higher than in October, an unusual occurrence given typical seasonality, but not unheard of. Now, if December’s numbers come in higher than November, that will be unheard of…
Prices were a bit of a mixed bag. The SFH median was up five grand from October, while the condo median remained the same. Both are down about 1% from a year ago, but significantly more from six months ago, in fact the condo median is down more than 7%. So we’ll be seeing continued fluctuation heading into the winter.
Despite the strength in medians, average were down. Condo’s over $6K and SFH’s over $3K from October. Interestingly the overall residential average actually rose, which tells us there was a big swing in sales mix with a big increase in sales in SFH’s and away from condos. No surprise these are both down significantly from a year ago.
Inventory continued it’s seasonal slide, and is now a touch below 7,000. We can expect a massive drop next month as the calendar year end also marks the typical wave of delistings from the market, which will come back online as the new year unfolds. I guess we can start putting our money down on how big the drop will be next month, I’m gonna say 1,500+, but it might be a little less as we have seen listings drop off a little faster than usual for the summer/fall.
Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:
Sales* = 1,120
Since two years ago = +24.4% (+220)
Since one year ago = -9.5% (-118)
Since last month = +4.0% (+43)
Active Listings = 6,982
Since two years ago = -12.9% (-1,033)
Since one year ago = +33.6% (+1,756)
Since last month = -9.2% (-707)
Single Family Homes Median* = $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = -1.1% (-$3,900)
Since six months ago = -3.6% (-$13,000)
Since last month = +1.4% (+$5,000)
Condo Median* = $218,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -17.7% (-$47,000)
Since one year ago = -0.9% (-$2,000)
Since six months ago = -7.4% (-$17,500)
Since last month = 0.0% ($0)
Residential Average* = $319,479
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.3% (-$36,660)
Since one year ago = -1.4% (-$4,649)
Since six months ago = -6.1% (-$20,713)
Since last month = +0.6% (+$2,057)
Single Family Homes Average* = $362,657
Since peak (May ’07) = -14.5% (-$61,743)
Since one year ago = -2.5% (-$9,241)
Since six months ago = -7.1% (-$27,926)
Since last month = -0.8% (-$3,034)
Condo Average* = $229,603
Since peak (July ’07) = -16.3% (-$44,776)
Since one year ago = -3.0% (-$7,049)
Since six months ago = -7.6% (-$18,923)
Since last month = -2.7% (-$6,291)
* Preliminary data, subject to revision
is it closing to the best timing for buyers?
If you really need to ask, you don’t want to know…
They are giving away cars in the hamptons if you buy a condo. I saw thee signs this weekend. The hamptons is the area beside rivercree casino. I’d rather come in with a low offer than get some car.