Mark Carney

Oh my! Papa Bear! Mark Carney!

It’s been quite a week for BoC Governor Mark Carney. He’s been all over the news, and dropping science faster than a theater major! Came out earlier in the week and told Canadians point blank they had too damn much debt and needed to tighten their belts. Given the timing, most Canadians probably think he was making a last ditch audition for the role of the Grinch. I’m sure that was music to the ears of retailers in particular.

For those of us who recognized this was happening years back, it probably doesn’t seem like much. But we need to read between the lines, and remember that for someone in as political a position as his, to come out with such strong words as he did is no small concession. One can only imagine the words being tossed around behind closed doors. After all, this is a bunch who wouldn’t say “shit” if you took one in their $800 Italian loafers. And it is prose like that which so aptly displays why my foray into public relations was a misguided as it was brief.

Debt to GDP and Disposable Income

But enough of the hyperbole, lets take a look at the data and see what Marky-Mark was talkin’ about (and don’t think that’s not a photoshop that is being worked on). The 3Q National Balance Sheet Accounts data was released Monday, and it was ugly. You may recall back in September some dumbasses were speculating that Canadians appetite for debt may finally be waning.

Upon further review… yeah… not so much.

After the debt-to-disposable income ratio apparently dipping in the spring, the preliminary numbers show that was merely an aberration as come summer we were right back on course, and have now eclipsed the 150% mark, coming in at 150.19%. After the ratio took it’s biggest quarter-to-quarter drop ever in 2Q, it took it’s biggest jump ever in Q3. In the twenty years that data has been kept the quarter-to-quarter fluctuation had only eclipsed 3% two times, and just barely… so that our jump this quarter damn near hitting 5% is no small feat (4.82% to be exact).

The debt-to-GDP figure also continues to climb, albeit more gradually. The preliminary 3Q numbers coming in at an all time high of 94.04%. So it doesn’t seem that we’ve maxed out yet. We’ve now surpassed the comparative U.S. figures, as since their housing market went bust they’ve seen their ratios fall off. At the peak down south their debt-to-disposable-income was close to 160% (their calculations are slightly different, so we’re ballparking it).

In any case, we haven’t been heeding the warnings thus far, and Carney has been one of the few the last couple years telling people to reign it in. We’re also starting to hear rumblings again from the big banks, apparently wanting the Feds to tighten mortgage lending rules even more, perhaps even so far as going back to 25 year amortizations and requiring 10% down payments. In this internet blowhards opinion that would be a great move for the government to make, but this is the same bunch that stripped them to the bone in the first place.