Edmonton Housing Bust

I guess the big story today would be the final big blast of winter arriving. Not exactly pleasant, and largely unnecessary in my opinion… but I suppose the moisture will be appreciated. In other news, the latest resale numbers were released, and the signs of a market turn continue to come into focus.

The inventory tide continued to roll in last month, rising by 1,284… the 5th biggest such jump ever, surpassed only by three months in the initial wave following the initial turn of the market in ’07, and just a fraction behind this March’s tally.

This has launched the total inventory to over 8,000… blowing well past the peak reached in ’09. The shadow inventory is returning, and fast. It’ll be interesting to see when inventory peaks this year… in ’07 it wasn’t until September, but in ’08 was May and these were the only other times we’ve seen activity in this range before. I’m getting the feeling we’ll split the difference and it’ll be June/July, but if sellers really get scared it could drag out.

Sales were about normal for April, coming in at 1,740. Up from last month, but down from a year ago… a pattern we’ll likely see for the rest of the spring. Sales typically trend up this time of year, and a year ago the hysteria over historic interest rates resulted in greatly increased sales, something we won’t be seeing those again this spring.

Prices were a mixed bag. Some were up, some were down, but none by large degrees. Interestingly the SFH average was down three grand, while the median was up six… so, we’re seeing a lot of activity right in the middle of the market, but less at the high end.

And with all the inventory coming online, absorption rate is trending up even despite increased sales. While obviously still well below the level seen in ’08, we’re now starting to significantly diverge from the numbers witnessed last year… and that will continue to extend over the spring as inventory is already much higher this year and sales will be much lower.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 1,740
Since two years ago = -4.6% (-83)
Since one year ago = -5.6% (-103)
Since last month = +13.4% (+205)

Active Listings = 8,056
Since two years ago = -24.0% (-2,550)
Since one year ago = +6.9% (+517)
Since last month = +19.0% (+1,286)

Single Family Homes Median= $370,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -6.7% (-$30,000)
Since one year ago = +9.8% (+$33,000)
Since six months ago = +6.9% (+$24,000)
Since last month = +1.6% (+$6,000)

Condo Median = $237,000
Since two years ago = -3.3% (-$8,000)
Since one year ago = +6.8% (+$15,000)
Since last month = +1.3% (+$3,000)

Residential Average = $339,314
Since peak (July ’07) = -4.3% (-$15,414)
Since one year ago = +8.7% (+$27,187)
Since six months ago = +6.4% (+$20,345)
Since last month = -1.2% (-$4,293)

Single Family Homes Average = $385,359
Since peak (May ’07) = -9.5% (-$40,669)
Since one year ago = +9.0% (+$31,973)
Since six months ago = +6.0% (+$21,665)
Since last month = -0.8% (-$3,114)

Condo Average = $253,788
Since peak (July ’07) = -6.7% (-$18,120)
Since one year ago = +7.5% (+$17,768)
Since six months ago = +6.8% (+$16,187)
Since last month = +0.5% (+$1,372)

Today they released the final March resale numbers, and I think we can safely say we have entered the final blow-off stage of our little year-long interest rate rally. The dumb money is now pouring in trying to beat the new lending regulations and central bank rate hikes… while the smart money is trying to get out while they still can… and if those pending events weren’t enough, the mid month jacking of mid-term fixed rate mortgage rates certainly reinforced what was coming down the line.

Prices were up HUGE. People weren’t just buying, they were going big (I’m betting there were a lot of VRM’s involved…). Averages saw massive gains… residential up 8.5%, condo’s up 9.0% and single family homes up 5.1%, and this was month-over-month. Just to put that into perspective, from a nominal dollar perspective, those gains were the biggest ever… yeah, even larger than any experienced even during the 2006/2007 boom. Medians were also up, though a bit more modestly than the averages. Single family homes up 2.5%, and condo’s up 7.3%.

And all this with a soft job market and negative interprovincial migration. If foreclosures weren’t already a disaster waiting to happen, they certainly would be now. New buyers getting even more extended on unsustainable interest rates. This sudden jump in prices seems even more arbitrary looking at supply and demand though.

Sales were nothing special historically for March… if anything they were probably a little on the low side, coming in at 1,571. They were up over last month, but that’s no surprise at this time of year… and up from last March, but considering that was one of the lowest on record, that isn’t saying much either. A far cry from March of 2007 when there were 2,359 sales, a time when large month-over-month price gains were normal.

Beyond that, there was no shortage of supply… in fact, inventory rocket up even faster than prices, increasing by over 24% just over February to sit at 6,770. Mind you, increases are typical in the spring, but nominally that was an increase of 1,321 month-over-month, which is the 4th largest such increase ever… surpassed only by May, June, and July of 2007… coincidently when the first massive inventory spike took root and the bubble began to deflate.

A rather ominous portend indeed. And incredibly at odds at the behaviour on the price front. Those who can least afford it are running in and maxing themselves out on borrowed funds… at the same time sellers are begging to rush their properties to market at a near record pace in hopes of cashing out.

Absorption rate wise we are down from last year but still well in buyers market territory (again begging the question, why did prices shoot up?). Year-over-year inventory is still a bit below where it was last March while sales were a bit better, explaining that. But this is something to keep an eye on as last year inventory actually peaked in April at just over 7,500… so if the rush to market this year continues into April, we could easily pass that mark next month.

These are interesting times my friends, sales are nothing special while inventory is growing steeply… and somehow this results in the largest nominal increase in average prices on record. The dumb money has arrived, and the smart money is trying to get out while the getting is good. This is going to be a colourful few months ahead of us!

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 1,571
Since two years ago = +0.9% (+14)
Since one year ago = +13.8% (+191)
Since last month = +32.7% (+387)

Active Listings = 6,770
Since two years ago = -28.5% (-2,694)
Since one year ago = -9.4% (-706)
Since last month = +24.2% (+1,321)

Single Family Homes Median= $364,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -9.0% (-$36,000)
Since one year ago = +9.0% (+$30,000)
Since six months ago = +4.0% (+$14,100)
Since last month = +2.5% (+$9,000)

Condo Median = $234,000
Since two years ago = -6.4% (-$16,000)
Since one year ago = +8.8% (+$19,000)
Since last month = +7.3% (+$16,000)

Residential Average = $343,607
Since peak (July ’07) = -3.1% (-$11,111)
Since one year ago = +11.2% (+$34,575)
Since six months ago = +5.0% (+$16,372)
Since last month = +8.5% (+$26,842)

Single Family Homes Average = $388,473
Since peak (May ’07) = -8.8% (-$37,555)
Since one year ago = +11.1% (+$38,757)
Since six months ago = +4.4% (+$16,526)
Since last month = +5.1% (+$18,900)

Condo Average = $252,416
Since peak (July ’07) = -7.2% (-$19,492)
Since one year ago = +9.5% (+$21,947)
Since six months ago = +2.8% (+$6,870)
Since last month = +9.0% (+$20,886)

The Edmonton Real Estate Board released their February numbers this morning. No big surprises as we’re still in something of a holding pattern waiting to see how the market will react to when the threat of interest rate hikes finally comes to fruition. As a stats geek, the most exciting feature is that they have revamped their data package shortly after their release last month, and now includes median prices for condos and even the overall residential market. So, we’ll start including those, and eventually phase out the use of averages, as medians are more meaningful.

On the price front, for single family homes things were pretty much unchanged. Condo’s continue to be very volatile, after a dive in the fall, they had rebounded in the early winter, but took another swing down in February… now at their lowest level since last winter.

On the supply and demand front, things continue to follow their seasonal course. Inventory is starting to climb fast, and sales are also starting to pick up after four consecutive declines in the typical fall slow down. Inventory in particular will be interesting to follow should the market turn, as we witnessed after the boom played out and inventory exploded in 2007. Perhaps won’t reach the same heights, but I have a hunch we’ll be well above our current level… which, historically speaking, is already very high to begin with.

And finally we see historical February absorption rates. While lower than the last couple years, we’re still a fair way from balanced… and given all the artificial pumping into the real estate market, that’s troubling, as all the stimuli is obviously making it look stronger than it really is. It will be interesting to see what the spring holds, whether a final round of greater fools will rush in create another frenzy trying to beat the pending change in lending standards, or rising interest rates, or not.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 1,184
Since two years ago = -8.0% (-103)
Since one year ago = +10.1% (+109)
Since last month = +33.9% (+300)

Active Listings = 5,449
Since two years ago = -34.2% (-2,835)
Since one year ago = -23.2% (-1,648)
Since last month = +12.0% (+585)

Single Family Homes Median= $355,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -11.3% (-$45,000)
Since one year ago = +6.0% (+$20,000)
Since six months ago = +1.4% (+$5,000)
Since last month = -0.3% (-$1,000)

Condo Median = $218,500
Since two years ago = -13.2% (-$33,250)
Since one year ago = -0.2% (-$500)
Since last month = -1.8% (-$4000)

Residential Average = $316,765
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.7% (-$37,953)
Since one year ago = +2.5% (+$7,795)
Since six months ago = -0.5% (-$1,556)
Since last month = +0.6% (+$1,982)

Single Family Homes Average = $369,573
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.3% (-$56,455)
Since one year ago = +634% (+$22,264)
Since six months ago = +0.8% (+$2,785)
Since last month = +0.5% (+$1,826)

Condo Average = $231,530
Since peak (July ’07) = -14.8% (-$40,378)
Since one year ago = +2.1% (+$4,673)
Since six months ago = -4.3% (-$10,505)
Since last month = -3.1% (-$7,476)

The EREB released the January resale numbers yesterday. All things considered it was about what we’d expect, something of a mixed bag. Sales numbers were rather low compared to the record fall, but not unheard of for January historically. Prices moved marginally, and inventory started it’s annual change of course.

Movements were small, but interesting on the price front. Single-family-homes remain the strong segment of the market… median price was up $4,650 (and is now at it’s highest point since July ’08), but the average was only up $986, indicating we’re seeing most of the SFH activity right in the mid-price range.

Condo prices continue their roller coaster ride, down $5,168 from December. The overall residential average was also down significantly $4,418 from December… this would indicate a shift in sales mix back to condos (or, more accurately, away from SFH’s).

Once again, sales were rather low for January, but not unusually so. Much has been made about the January numbers being lower than Decembers, but that isn’t entirely uncommon in Edmonton either. This is likely due to SFH sales returning down to earth after a rather torrid nine months.

Inventory took a big time bounce in January, gaining over 800. While a jump from December to January is normal, this is the largest we’ve ever seen (nominally, the previous high was 480). This is likely just a response to the massive wave of delistings in the fall. It’ll be interesting to see how the spring and summer play out… as when the market does again turn we can expect another flood of listings.

With the decline in sales and rise in inventory, obviously the absorption rate is up. We see we’re again quite high historically, but lower than the prior two years right after the market turned the first time.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 884
Since two years ago = -28.0% (-343)
Since one year ago = +21.1% (+154)
Since last month = -6.8% (-64)

Active Listings = 4,864
Since two years ago = -33.8% (-2,488)
Since one year ago = -26.0% (-1,709)
Since last month = -20.5% (+827)

Single Family Homes Median= $356,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -11.0% (-$44,000)
Since one year ago = +7.9% (+$26,000)
Since six months ago = +1.7% (+$6,000)
Since last month = +1.3% (+$4,650)

Residential Average = $314,783
Since peak (July ’07) = -11.3% (-$39,935)
Since one year ago = -0.7% (-$2,266)
Since six months ago = -3.1% (-$10,064)
Since last month = -1.4% (-$4,418)

Single Family Homes Average = $367,747
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.7% (-$58,271)
Since one year ago = +4.3% (+$15,058)
Since six months ago = -1.3% (-$4,994)
Since last month = +0.3% (+$986)

Condo Average = $239,006
Since peak (July ’07) = -12.1% (-$32,902)
Since one year ago = +0.2% (+$471)
Since six months ago = -2.2% (-$5,259)
Since last month = -2.1% (-$5,168)

The EREB released the December resale numbers for Edmonton today. We’re continuing to see the expected seasonal trends for sales and inventory, both typically dive off a cliff in December… prices largely held, except condos where they took a BIG bounce after two months of sharp falls.

With condos apparently decoupling in October and November and seeing rather large month over month declines while the rest of the market held, you had to figure either they’d bounce back up or SFH’s would shortly start to follow the same trend… and we got the former, to the tune of a rather massive 5.4%. This is actually fairly normal behavior after sharp drops (>2% MoM), they’ll often bounce back to their prior level or close too it. Given the holding of prices in the SFH category, and even the appreciation of prices in Calgary the condo price dive did seem to have all the marks of an abberation.

It’s been an interest year, as a year ago prices were nearing their bottom before interest rates took a big dive in the spring and really spurred the Canadian real estate market. So year-over-year we’re starting to see rather a decent appreciation, while over the last six months prices have merely held. Now we’re left with a waiting game to see what happens with interest rates… when will they jump, and more importantly, how high.

Like I mentioned, as is usual for December inventory and sales take a big dive. Seems a large percentage of listings expire at year year, thus we typically see a big wave of delistings the last week of December… then several get relisted immediately in the new year, while others trickle in through winter and spring.

Sales also typically are at their bottom in December, and I think we could fairly safely reason that is due to the extended holiday period and everything that comes with that. Relative to past years, December ’09′s sales were fairly strong, high end of average.

And here we have the absorption rate. It continues to settle back towards the normal range. This will be very interesting to follow once rates start going up. That will of course soften sales, but I also suspect we could see another explosion of listings somewhere along the way when market sentiment swings. Perhaps not to the level seen in ’08, but approaching that territory.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 948
Since two years ago = +10.6% (+91)
Since one year ago = +55.9% (+340)
Since last month = -24.8% (-313)

Active Listings = 4,037
Since two years ago = -43.1% (-3,057)
Since one year ago = -36.1% (-2,279)
Since last month = -22.8% (-1,189)

Single Family Homes Median= $351,350
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.2% (-$48,650)
Since one year ago = +6.5% (+$21,350)
Since six months ago = +0.5% (+$1,850)
Since last month = +0.4% (+$1,350)

Residential Average = $319,201
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.0% (-$35,517)
Since one year ago = +2.6% (+$8,227)
Since six months ago = -2.8% (-$9,098)
Since last month = +0.2% (+$719)

Single Family Homes Average = $366,761
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.9% (-$59,267)
Since one year ago = +4.2% (+$14,891)
Since six months ago = -0.8% (-$3,098)
Since last month = -0.3% (-$1,257)

Condo Average = $244,174
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.2% (-$27,734)
Since one year ago = +4.2% (+$9,888)
Since six months ago = -1.2% (-$2,897)
Since last month = +5.4% (+$12,490)

The November resale data was released today, and again this month we’re seeing some interesting movements on the price front. After a rather big drop last month, the single-family-homes rebounded a bit, and that the held the residential average… but condo’s continued to drop, hard.

Condo’s were down another 2.5% in November, and this after a they dropped 3.2% the month before. As we’ve discussed here ad nauseam, condo’s are by the far weakest sector because how severely overbuilt they are (in regards to supply)… but even so, an almost 6% drop in two months is massive, especially when the rest of the market is more-or-less holding. Thus don’t be too surprised if there is a bounce in condo prices in the near future.

Unless SFH’s suddenly start falling quickly too, I’d expect condos to at least hold if not rebound a bit in the short term. In the long term I still expect condo prices to fall WAY below where they are today, I just find this recent decoupling odd, and likely an aberration given the current interest rate environment. But who knows, Edmonton has thus far been the forerunner of the Alberta (and now, national) boom-bust cycle, so maybe it’s the beginning of the next chapter.

Sales are starting to slow and inventories dropping, as typically happens this time of year. They both typically bottom out in December (we see mass delistings the last week of December), then being to ramp up as winter progresses.

Which brings us to absorption rate, which jumped about half a point to 4.14 in November. As we can see from the graph we’re in more of a normal range for this time of year, but I would be wary as we’re coming off another extended period of high sales.

In times like that, people tend to hold off from listing for whatever reason (and record low interest rates certainly wouldn’t be rushing them either). Then when the market turns they rush them to market and you end up with a flood of inventory, as we witnessed just two years ago. The double whammy of a cooling market and rising interest rates could very well lead to another explosion of listings, so be aware.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 1,261
Since two years ago = +3.1% (+38)
Since one year ago = +41.5% (+370)
Since last month = -17.9% (-274)

Active Listings = 5,226
Since two years ago = -39.7% (-3,441)
Since one year ago = -34.8% (-2,789)
Since last month = -5.5% (-304)

Single Family Homes Median= $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = +3.9% (+$13,000)
Since six months ago = +2.2% (+$7,500)
Since last month = +1.2% (+$4,000)

Residential Average = $318,482
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.2% (-$36,236)
Since one year ago = -0.0% (-106)
Since six months ago = -2.4% (-$7,850)
Since last month = -0.2% (-$487)

Single Family Homes Average = $368,018
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.6% (-$58,010)
Since one year ago = +1.5% (+$5,261)
Since six months ago = +0.1% (+$346)
Since last month = +1.2% (-$4,324)

Condo Average = $231,684
Since peak (July ’07) = -14.8% (-$40,224)
Since one year ago = +0.1% (+$153)
Since six months ago = -5.3% (-$13,050)
Since last month = -2.5% (-$5,917)

The October resale numbers were released today, and it was a much different story then we’ve been hearing about the last few months, and even what happened in Calgary last month. While sales were down noticeably from September (as is normally expected given real estates seasonality), they were still very strong for October… yet prices were down in a big way.

In all categories prices fell, and rather significantly for month-over-month movements. Condo’s, single-family-homes and the residential averages were all down about $8,000 from September (3.2%, 2.2% and 2.5% respectively), and the single-family-home median was down $3,900 (1.1%).

An unusual softening given relatively strong sales, but as I’ve hypothesized in the last few months, this could be further evidence of the return of high levels of speculation. As they typically buy at the low end of the market, that would explain the strong sales and movement of price… or could just be wishful thinking.

Curious that Edmonton and Calgary tend to mirror each other, yet Edmonton had a significant drop while Calgary had increases. Could just be an aberration, or we could see one eventually follow the other.

As previously mentioned, sales were down month-over-month (-9.9%), but strong for this time of year (1,535). Inventory also continued it’s typical autumn decline, and now sit at 5,530. Finally absorption rate stayed about the same at 3.6, as sales and inventory fell off at similar clips.

As always, here are the hard goods (note, this will be the last month townhomes are included. They make up such a tiny portion of the market and are so frequently lumped in with condos there isn’t much point including them, but if so included you can still look them up in the EREB releases):

Sales = 1,530
Since two years ago = +20.3% (+259)
Since one year ago = +22.7% (+284)
Since last month = -9.9% (-169)

Active Listings = 5,530
Since two years ago = -42.3% (-4,047)
Since one year ago = -35.1% (-2,995)
Since last month = -8.3% (-502)

Single Family Homes Median= $346,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.5% (-$54,000)
Since one year ago = +0.9% (+$3,250)
Since six months ago = +2.7% (+$9,000)
Since last month = -1.1% (-$3,900)

Residential Average = $318,969
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.1% (-$35,749)
Since one year ago = +0.4% (+$1,185)
Since six months ago = +2.2% (+$6,842)
Since last month = -2.5% (-$8,266)

Single Family Homes Average = $363,694
Since peak (May ’07) = -14.6% (-$62,334)
Since one year ago = +0.1% (+$420)
Since six months ago = +2.9% (+$10,308)
Since last month = -2.2% (-$8,253)

Condo Average = $237,601
Since peak (July ’07) = -12.6% (-$34,307)
Since one year ago = +0.0% (+$11)
Since six months ago = +0.7% (+$1,581)
Since last month = -3.2% (-$7,945)

Townhome Average = $299,843
Since peak (Oct ’07) = -18.5% (-$68,121)
Since one year ago = -2.4% (-$7,335)
Since six months ago = +3.0% (+$8,775)
Since last month = -0.0% (-$121)

The September numbers were released today, and after a cooling in August sales held in September. Up slightly from month-over-month and down slightly year-over-year. So, interest rates are continuing to spur spending, which is fine as long as the status quo remains.

On the price front, averages were up a couple ticks across the board, while SFH median held. So, we were continuing to see increasing action in the higher price ranges. In the next week or so I’m hoping to do another update on the sales mix for the price ranges.

As I mentioned earlier, we’re also starting to see YoY increases by this time last year prices started dropping, and interest rates this year have proved to be a game changer and created a sense of affordability which has led to a price rebound. Time will tell how sustainable these gains really are.

With the seasonal decline in inventory starting to hit and sales holding, absorption rate went down slightly from August to 3.54 from 3.85. Still in the buyers range, but there seems to be a lot of disparity between different sectors. Certain types of property sell very well, but others are very slow.

As always, here are the hard goods:

Sales = 1,704
Since two years ago = +635% (+662)
Since one year ago = -1.4% (-25)
Since last month = +1.9% (+31)

Active Listings = 6,032
Since two years ago = -39.2% (-3,886)
Since one year ago = -31.5% (-2,776)
Since last month = -6.4% (-413)

Single Family Homes Median= $349,900
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,100)
Since one year ago = +1.3% (+$4,400)
Since six months ago = +4.8% (+$15,900)
Since last month = -0.0% (-$100)

Residential Average = $327,235
Since peak (July ’07) = -7.7% (-$27,483)
Since one year ago = +0.7% (+$2,330)
Since six months ago = +5.9% (+$18,203)
Since last month = +2.8% (+$8,914)

Single Family Homes Average = $371,947
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.7% (-$54,081)
Since one year ago = +2.7% (+$9,850)
Since six months ago = +6.4% (+$22,231)
Since last month = +1.4% (+$5,159)

Condo Average = $245,546
Since peak (July ’07) = -9.7% (-$26,362)
Since one year ago = -2.7% (-$6,687)
Since six months ago = +6.5% (+$15,077)
Since last month = +1.5% (+$3,511)

Townhome Average = $299,964
Since peak (Oct ’07) = -18.5% (-$68,000)
Since one year ago = -5.0% (-$15,726)
Since six months ago = +8.4% (+$23,188)
Since last month = +2.0% (+$5,957)

The August numbers were released this morning, and the market looks like it’s cooling after a blistering late spring/early summer on the sales front. Inventory was down slightly, but because of the large drop in sales the absorption rate has climbed back up into ‘buyers market’ territory. Average prices were also down across the spectrum.

As I mentioned, average prices were down in all categories, but the SFH median did hold from July. The SFH average dropped $5,953 from July, condos and townhomes were both down about $2,250, and the residential average dropped $6,526.

As the drop in residential average was larger then for any of it’s components, that suggests we’re seeing a shift in activity back toward condos. Not a surprising move though, as with the record low interest rates it allowed people to ‘go big’ so to speak, and there was a disproportionate amount of activity in the detached market.

In coming months it will be interesting to watch prices, as the global markets are not showing any signs of recovery, I’d expect bond yields to stay down, which in turn will keep interest rates down likely going into 2010. This could keep prices up, and we could actually see some year-over-year increases even with month-over-month softening as it was around this time last year prices fell off the table before rallying a bit this spring.

Of course that will likely all come undone once rates do start climbing, but in the mean time if you’re looking to sell you don’t need to feel rushed just yet.

After consecutive record months, August was much more in the ‘average’ range for sales. Inventory has dropped a bit, but is largely holding. Interesting the pattern inventory makes this year is something of a mole hill compared to the mountains 2007 and 2008.

Though, I suspect it would be more severe if it wasn’t for the low interest rates, which has made the speculative/shadow inventory very cheap to carry in hopes of prices returning to boom levels. A risky move IMNSHO, but it’s not my money.

And finally, here is a look at absorption rates for August over the years. Down from the last two years obviously, but much higher then we normally are historically. It’s also climbed back above 3.5 and into a ‘buyers market’ after getting as low as 2.66 in June. Such movement is quite normal for this time of year though, as sales tend to drop off more while inventory holds.

As always, here are the hard goods:

Sales = 1,673
Since two years ago = +28.8% (+374)
Since one year ago = +8.6% (+132)
Since last month = -26.5% (-604)

Active Listings = 6,445
Since two years ago = -29.8% (-2,740)
Since one year ago = -32.9% (-3,167)
Since last month = -2.2% (-147)

Single Family Homes Median= $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = -0.7% (-$2,500)
Since six months ago = +4.5% (+$15,000)
Since last month = No Change

Residential Average = $318,321
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.3% (-$36,397)
Since one year ago = -3.3% (-$10,886)
Since six months ago = +3.0% (+$9,351)
Since last month = -2.0% (-$6,526)

Single Family Homes Average = $366,788
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.9% (-$59,240)
Since one year ago = -0.7% (-$2,402)
Since six months ago = +5.6% (+$19,479)
Since last month = -1.6% (-$5,953)

Condo Average = $242,035
Since peak (July ’07) = -11.0% (-$29,873)
Since one year ago = -3.6% (-$9,013)
Since six months ago = +6.7% (+$15,178)
Since last month = -0.9% (-$2,230)

Townhome Average = $294,007
Since peak (Oct ’07) = -20.1% (-$73,957)
Since one year ago = -6.8% (-$21,433)
Since six months ago = -4.9% (-$15,173)
Since last month = -0.8% (-$2,277)

Another big month in July sales wise, setting a record even. Amazing what record low interest rates can do even in a recession. Prices were more mixed, as we’ve seemed to have turned the corner into the summer and the traditional cooling of the market.

Obviously sales were strong for July, but were down month-over-month. That is quite typical though as usually sales peak in May or June then cool through the winter, and start amping back up… 2003 being the exception when they actually peaked in July.

Inventory dipped a bit in response to the increased activity, but remains very high by historical measures.

Prices as I mentioned were a mixed bag. SFH median was about the same, SFH average and townhomes were up a point or two, while the residential average and condos were both down a tick.

As everything but condos were up, but the residential average was down, that would suggest there were a whole lot of condos sold last month… which I think could signal the return of the speculator to the market. Which would be consistent with a couple friends of mine behaviour as they’re into the house flipping game, and the last couple months have been suddenly emboldened and dusted off their cheque books. Time will tell whether that pays off.

Obviously with sales down from June, absorption rate went up a bit. Again this is quite typical for this time of year, as sales start to drop off faster then inventory. Expect that to continue for the next few months.

So, the executive summary for July, sales were strong but are falling with typical seasonality, prices are about the same, and speculators may be returning judging from increased activity in the condo market.

As always, here are the hard goods:

Sales = 2,277
Since two years ago = +45.5% (+712)
Since one year ago = +27.6% (+493)
Since last month = -10.8% (-275)

Active Listings = 6,592
Since two years ago = -19.4% (-1,591)
Since one year ago = -37.2% (-3,909)
Since last month = -2.8% (-193)

Single Family Homes Median= $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = -3.3% (-$12,000)
Since six months ago = +6.1% (+$20,000)
Since last month = +0.1% (+$500)

Residential Average = $324,847
Since peak (July ’07) = -8.4% (-$29,871)
Since one year ago = -3.1% (-$10,253)
Since six months ago = +2.5% (+$7,798)
Since last month = -1.1% (-$3,452)

Single Family Homes Average = $372,741
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$53,287)
Since one year ago = -1.7% (-$6,483)
Since six months ago = +5.7% (+$20,052)
Since last month = +0.8% (+$2,882)

Condo Average = $244,265
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.2% (-$27,643)
Since one year ago = -3.8% (-$9,585)
Since six months ago = +2.4% (+$5,730)
Since last month = -1.1% (-$2,806)

Townhome Average= $296,284
Since peak (Oct ’07) = -19.5% (-$71,680)
Since one year ago = -6.5% (-$20,548)
Since six months ago = -1.0% (-$2,938)
Since last month = +1.8% (+$5,213)