Edmonton Housing Bust

The January resale numbers came out today… and you know it’s bad when they are looking to Winter ’09 for a comparison other for sales levels. You may remember the 1Q of ’09 was dismal for sales, the worst this Millenia in fact, but of course no mention of that in their schlep. I guess context doesn’t help shine a turd.

The preliminary sales tally comes in at 735. We can expect the revision to be in the 770-790 range… so we may or may not top January ’09′s rather dismal total. In any case, ’tis ugly. Even down from December in fact, though that’s not entirely unusual, and actually also mirrors the inventory situation to a degree. Apparently both buyers and sellers are playing it close to the vest.

Like I mentioned, and as we can now see, inventory is also down… though barely, and obviously nothing like December. This too isn’t all that unusual for January, the listings don’t usually start to flood back until March/April. Going back to the boom years, we can see in 2006 inventory didn’t start growing until August of that year (well, it was +2 in June, but then it went -3 in July)… but that’s a different world then we’re living in now.

Now onto prices. Big month for the SFH median, or at least indicates last months dive was an aberration. We’re just a tick below $350,000. The average also rose over December, but only by $1000 to sit around $356,000. From this was take that the fluctuation of the median in the face of a fairly stable average that it was either an anomaly, or the middle of the market firmed up drastically. Maybe it took it’s New Years resolution seriously?!

The news was not nearly as rosy for condo’s though. You may recall last month my mentioning that we were on the cusp of retracting to ’06 price levels… we’ll we ain’t on the cusp anymore. We’re now officially at the lowest point since November ’06. The median took a pretty large MoM drop of $6,000 to $214,000. The average took a more moderate hit of about $2500 to sit at $221,000. Don’t be surprised to see a little bounce in these in the next month or two, especially in the median. When you see drops over 1% MoM, you often see a bit of a rebound, at least in the short term.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 735
Since two years ago = +0.7% (+5)
Since one year ago = -16.9% (-149)
Since last month = -6.3% (-49)

Active Listings = 5,633
Since two years ago = -14.3% (-940)
Since one year ago = +15.8% (+769)
Since last month = -1.5% (-88)

Single Family Homes Median* = $349,900
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,100)
Since one year ago = -1.7% (-$6,100)
Since six months ago = -6.3% (-$10,100)
Since last month = +4.0% (+$13,400)

Condo Median* = $214,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -19.2% (-$51,000)
Since one year ago = -3.6% (-$8,000)
Since six months ago = -7.0% (-$16,000)
Since last month = -2.7% (-$6000)

Residential Median* = $307,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.6% (-$36,500)
Since one year ago = +0.7% (+$2,000)
Since six months ago = -1.9% (-$6,000)
Since last month = +2.3% (+$7,000)

Single Family Homes Average* = $356,276
Since peak (May ’07) = -16.1% (-$68,124)
Since one year ago = -3.1% (-$11,471)
Since six months ago = -6.0% (-$22,703)
Since last month = +0.3% (+$1,005)

Condo Average* = $220,994
Since peak (July ’07) = -19.5% (-$53,385)
Since one year ago = -7.5% (-$18,012)
Since six months ago = -8.1% (-$19,337)
Since last month = -1.1% (-$2,460)

Residential Average* = $310,766
Since peak (July ’07) = -12.7% (-$45,373)
Since one year ago = -1.4% (-$4,511)
Since six months ago = -5.8% (-$18,968)
Since last month = +0.7% (+$2,269)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

Hope everyone has found their ways back after a holiday break. Always nice to go home for the holidays, reminds you why you don’t go back more often. Don’t get me wrong, I love my family to death… but the likelihood of a death increases exponentially with each day I’m exposed to them. All jokes aside, hope everyone had a great festive season!

Getting back on point though, the December numbers are in, and it seems temperatures weren’t the only thing down in December.

Prices took a beating last month. Single family home prices sunk to levels we haven’t seen since the lowly days of the winter of ’08, back in the worst of the financial crisis and before interest rates were tanked. The SFH median dropped to $336,500 and the average to $355,271. As we can see from the graphs the lowest in two years, and not far above the bottom of the first phase of the bust. If/when it goes much lower, we’ll have to go all the way back to ’06 for a comparison.

Month-over-month the median dropped $13,500, oddly close to the year-over-year drop of $14,000 (which is about 4%, a little scary considering the ultra strong winter which goosed prices). But December can be a bit of an outlier with the typically reduced activity, though I do expect this weakness to continue right through the winter and spring just don’t be surprised if there is a little bounce in January.

Condo’s actually didn’t fair terribly on the whole, infact the median was up $2,000 MoM. Average was down over $6,000. Year-over-year they aren’t doing as well though, the median now sits at $220,000, down 3.5% ($8,000) from a year ago. The average took an monster hit or 7.2% ($17,342) from a year ago and now sits at $223,454. The softness of the condo market continues to make itself known. The average actually now sits at it’s lowest point since November 2006. Yeah, 2006. Not purdy.

After an oddly strong November, sales tumbled back to about the level they were expected to for December given the yearly trend, with the preliminary number coming in at 764. Rather low for December, but well above the brutal number put up in December 2008 when the preliminary number was a mere 543 (that was the worst December tally since 1994).

It does put us over 16,000 for the year though, we won’t know the final number until the revised number is revised figure comes out later in the month. Hell, we won’t even know then, they never seem to stop playing with these figures since they changed methods a year ago. In anycase, this will be the worst year sales wise since at least 2003, or even 2002 depending on what the revised number is.

Now time for the EKG, see all that bad cholesterol we shoveled down during the break is effecting us. As expected, we eclipsed the -1000 MoM mark last month, pretty much business as usual for December. A little bit bigger drop than last year, but not as big as the two years preceding that. What’s it mean? Who the hell knows, there is still a shitload of homes on the market. That’s what it means!

There are 5,721 to be exact, about 1700 more than a year ago at this time. I imagine they’ll come back online as per usual over the winter and spring. The heights it will reach will depend on the desperation, I’d think 8-9,000 come summer is a sure thing… if we eclipse 10,000 we’ll know things are getting real ugly out there.

But fear, cause even if you think this news is a big lump of coal in the stocking of housing bulls… it could always be worse. For example, just before the break my boss dropped a file on my desk and said get it down ASAP this guy could bring us a lot of business and he want’s to tell him what’s what before the break. So I worked on the file, and just before leaving for home I swung by his office to drop it off. He asked my what the good news was… I looked at the file, shrugged, and said, “Well, he hasn’t been audited yet.”

The partner grabs it, and says it can’t be that bad. I then proceed to tell him the guy has been funneling off money for years from his company and not reporting it… thus has an outstanding tax liability of well over a hundred thousand dollars. So no matter how bad your holiday was, it was quite probably better than our clients, cause you might have some fat credit card bills coming in the mail, but at least they aren’t to the tune of six figures!

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 784
Since two years ago = +44.4% (+241)
Since one year ago = -11.0% (-97)
Since last month = -30.0% (-336)

Active Listings = 5,721
Since two years ago = -9.4% (-595)
Since one year ago = +41.7% (+1,684)
Since last month = -18.1% (-1,261)

Single Family Homes Median* = $336,500
Since peak (May ’07) = -15.9% (-$63,500)
Since one year ago = -4.0% (-$14,000)
Since six months ago = -6.3% (-$22,500)
Since last month = -3.9% (-$13,500)

Condo Median* = $220,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -17.0% (-$45,000)
Since one year ago = -3.5% (-$8,000)
Since six months ago = -4.3% (-$10,000)
Since last month = +0.9% (+$2000)

Residential Median* = $300,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -12.7% (-$43,500)
Since one year ago = -1.6% (-$5,000)
Since six months ago = -4.8% (-$15,000)
Since last month = -2.6% (-$8,000)

Single Family Homes Average* = $355,271
Since peak (May ’07) = -16.3% (-$69,129)
Since one year ago = -2.7% (-$9,970)
Since six months ago = -9.3% (-$36,226)
Since last month = -2.0% (-$7,386)

Condo Average* = $223,454
Since peak (July ’07) = -18.6% (-$50,925)
Since one year ago = -7.2% (-$17,342)
Since six months ago = -7.9% (-$19,190)
Since last month = -2.7% (-$6,149)

Residential Average* = $308,497
Since peak (July ’07) = -13.4% (-$47,642)
Since one year ago = -2.0% (-$6,348)
Since six months ago = -8.0% (-$26,900)
Since last month = -3.4% (-$10,982)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

Who knew bitter temperatures were a recipe for a sales surge?! Calling it a “surge” may be a bit much, but after several months well below average they the climbed close to the mean in November and come in at 1,120. Evidently the writer of the EREB’s press release didn’t look terribly close at their actual stats, as they seemed to think sales were 1,220, and ran with it. But whatcha gonna do? Never let looking bad get in the way of a good narrative I guess.

After they are revised and whatnot I imagine the final number will come in around 1,200, which would put it in the normal range for November historically. I guess the other item of note is that this was actually higher than in October, an unusual occurrence given typical seasonality, but not unheard of. Now, if December’s numbers come in higher than November, that will be unheard of…

Prices were a bit of a mixed bag. The SFH median was up five grand from October, while the condo median remained the same. Both are down about 1% from a year ago, but significantly more from six months ago, in fact the condo median is down more than 7%. So we’ll be seeing continued fluctuation heading into the winter.

Despite the strength in medians, average were down. Condo’s over $6K and SFH’s over $3K from October. Interestingly the overall residential average actually rose, which tells us there was a big swing in sales mix with a big increase in sales in SFH’s and away from condos. No surprise these are both down significantly from a year ago.

Inventory continued it’s seasonal slide, and is now a touch below 7,000. We can expect a massive drop next month as the calendar year end also marks the typical wave of delistings from the market, which will come back online as the new year unfolds. I guess we can start putting our money down on how big the drop will be next month, I’m gonna say 1,500+, but it might be a little less as we have seen listings drop off a little faster than usual for the summer/fall.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,120
Since two years ago = +24.4% (+220)
Since one year ago = -9.5% (-118)
Since last month = +4.0% (+43)

Active Listings = 6,982
Since two years ago = -12.9% (-1,033)
Since one year ago = +33.6% (+1,756)
Since last month = -9.2% (-707)

Single Family Homes Median* = $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = -1.1% (-$3,900)
Since six months ago = -3.6% (-$13,000)
Since last month = +1.4% (+$5,000)

Condo Median* = $218,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -17.7% (-$47,000)
Since one year ago = -0.9% (-$2,000)
Since six months ago = -7.4% (-$17,500)
Since last month = 0.0% ($0)

Residential Average* = $319,479
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.3% (-$36,660)
Since one year ago = -1.4% (-$4,649)
Since six months ago = -6.1% (-$20,713)
Since last month = +0.6% (+$2,057)

Single Family Homes Average* = $362,657
Since peak (May ’07) = -14.5% (-$61,743)
Since one year ago = -2.5% (-$9,241)
Since six months ago = -7.1% (-$27,926)
Since last month = -0.8% (-$3,034)

Condo Average* = $229,603
Since peak (July ’07) = -16.3% (-$44,776)
Since one year ago = -3.0% (-$7,049)
Since six months ago = -7.6% (-$18,923)
Since last month = -2.7% (-$6,291)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

Greetings all. Seems I’ll not only be spending the next two weeks without internet access (lousy neighbors all password protect their wi-fi), but also cable. So, apparently I’m going to have to fill the hours doing something actually, you know, productive… either that, or watch a lot of DVD’s.

But thanks to a couple trips to the library to do the downloading and uploading I’ll be bringing you the latest resale numbers tonight. Don’t think I’ve been to a library twice in a day ever, which probably tells you how diligent a student I was (hell, class barely saw my shadow, much less the libraries).

Anyway, enough about me, lets talk numbers… and we’re talkin’ down in October. Doesn’t matter whether we’re looking month-over-month or year-over-year, prices are down across the board. The only thing up is the inventory YoY, which tells you all you need to know about why prices are going down.

The median SFH went for $345,000 last month, down five grand from last year and three grand from September… and is now down $55,000 from it’s peak value, or almost 14%. The average is $365,691, which is down about $1400 from last year, but almost $5000 from last month. Not pretty.

And speaking of not pretty, the condo median now sits at $218,000, down $9500 from a year ago and $3000 MoM. They’re also now down $47,000 from the peak value, which is almost 18%. The average condo now goes for $235,894, also down about three thou from a month ago, but only down a couple grand from a year ago.

The preliminary sales tally comes in at 1077, so we can expect the final number somewhere in the 1175 range. Which would still leave it as the worst October tally since 2000. This is down 110 from last months prelim numbers, and 452 from last Octobers revised total.

Like mentioned earlier, inventory is up in a big way from a year ago… but that’s hardly a story, that’s been the case for months. Month-over-Month it actually took a pretty big dive, down 918 from September to stand at 7,689. It’s be interesting to see how many delistings come next month, cause there has been a bit of ebb and flow to this figure over the summer, but come December it’s gonna be a tidal wave.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,077
Since two years ago = -9.9% (-118)
Since one year ago = -29.6% (-452)
Since last month = -9.3% (-110)

Active Listings = 7,689
Since two years ago = -9.8% (-836)
Since one year ago = +39.0% (+2,159)
Since last month = -10.7% (-918)

Single Family Homes Median* = $345,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.8% (-$55,000)
Since one year ago = -1.4% (-$5,000)
Since six months ago = -6.8% (-$25,000)
Since last month = -0.9% (-$3,000)

Condo Median* = $218,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -17.7% (-$47,000)
Since one year ago = -4.2% (-$9,500)
Since six months ago = -8.0% (-$19,000)
Since last month = -1.4% (-$3,000)

Residential Average* = $317,422
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.9% (-$38,717)
Since one year ago = -0.9% (-$2,762)
Since six months ago = -6.5% (-$21,892)
Since last month = -2.8% (-$9,077)

Single Family Homes Average* = $365,691
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.8% (-$58,709)
Since one year ago = -0.8% (-$1,434)
Since six months ago = -4.6% (-$19,668)
Since last month = -1.3% (-$4,963)

Condo Average* = $235,894
Since peak (July ’07) = -14.0% (-$38,485)
Since one year ago = -0.9% (-$2,160)
Since six months ago = -7.1% (-$17,894)
Since last month = -1.2% (-$2,928)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

Yesterday the resale numbers for September were released, and today we’ll take a look at them. Sorry I didn’t get to this yesterday, but I had today off and figured I’d rather knock it out when I had some time. Then I decided it was a good time to do some spring cleaning… I prefer to think of it as six months early, rather than six months late… and as things tend to go when I try to clean, I start by making an even bigger mess, but that’s alright, since I figure I’m achieving better economies of scale.

What was I talking about again? Oh yeah, resale numbers, lets talk about those!

On the price front, condo’s were trending up over August, both in median (+$3,000) and average (+$6,592), but remain down from a year ago (-$4,000 and -$5,452 respectively). Single-family-homes were kind of the opposite, they were down from August, median dropping -$2,000 and average -$1,599. Year-over-year the median is pretty much the same (down -$100), but average is still up (+$3,009).

So, on the whole we’re continuing to see the YoY numbers drop closer and closer to par, if not already below. We can expect to continue seeing this through the spring until March, when last years price swoon will show up and make the YoY comparison look really ugly. We can already see it in the 6-month comparisons we include below, where in all categories we’re well into the 5-figures for declines.

Sales were pretty much equal to Augusts tally, with the preliminary numbers coming in just down -8 (1,187 from 1,195), and if last months adjustment is any indication that should put the final tally at about 1,300. This remains down significantly from last year (1,674), and quite low historically.

Inventory is continuing it’s seasonal erosion, down -215 from August to sit at 8,607. Obviously this is still up in a big way from a year ago (+2,575), and extremely high historically. Seems the big drop in July was an outlier as the declines since then have been more moderate, but we can perhaps expect the drops to accelerate a big heading late into the fall, and obviously then we’ll have the big spike of delistings in December, only to come back on line soon thereafter.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,187
Since two years ago = -27.3% (-446)
Since one year ago = -29.1% (-487)
Since last month = -0.7% (-8)

Active Listings = 8,607
Since two years ago = -2.3% (-201)
Since one year ago = +42.7% (+2,575)
Since last month = -2.4% (-215)

Single Family Homes Median* = $348,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -13.0% (-$52,000)
Since one year ago = -0.0% (-$100)
Since six months ago = -4.4% (-$16,000)
Since last month = -0.6% (-$2,000)

Condo Median* = $221,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -16.6% (-$44,000)
Since one year ago = -1.8% (-$4,000)
Since six months ago = -5.6% (-$13,000)
Since last month = +1.4% (+$3,000)

Residential Average* = $326,499
Since peak (July ’07) = -8.3% (-$29,640)
Since one year ago = +0.9% (+$2,821)
Since six months ago = -5.0% (-$17,108)
Since last month = +0.3% (+$911)

Single Family Homes Average* = $370,654
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.7% (-$53,746)
Since one year ago = +0.8% (+$3,009)
Since six months ago = -4.6% (-$17,819)
Since last month = -0.4% (-$1,599)

Condo Average* = $238,822
Since peak (July ’07) = -13.0% (-$35,557)
Since one year ago = -2.2% (-$5,452)
Since six months ago = -5.4% (-$13,594)
Since last month = +2.8% (-$6,592)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

The August resale numbers were released today… and it would seem the truck nuts around EREB headquarters have climbed into the frame, as even their bravado seems forced in the wake.

After the expected lag, prices have now started to reflect the softness of the market conditions as median prices too a BIG bad dive last month (average prices did too, but by now I hope I’ve taught you if nothing else, that averages are a shitty stat, especially when medians are available). Sales were also down as expected, as is the active inventory, though interestingly they didn’t drop by as much as expected.

The median SFH price gave to the downward pressure and dropped $10,000 last month to $350,000, erasing what was left of it’s early year gains witnessed during the markets last gasp back in the spring. The average also dropped $6,700 in August, and is now down almost $20,000 in the last two months, to now sit at ~$372,000.

Some small consolation can be had by SFH’s, as the condo numbers dropped even more than they did. The median dove $12,000, and now sits at $218,000… which is it’s lowest level since March ’09 (right before interest rates juiced the market into another frenzy). We can see from the graph that any further declines and we’ll be retreading 2006 prices. The average dropped about $8,000, and now sits just above $232,000.

Sales continue their seasonal decline, the preliminary number being announced as 1,195… the final number usually comes in 7-8% above that, so we can expect the final number to reside in the 1,285 range (give or take a dozen). That would put us neck and neck with ’07 for worst August since the turn of the century.

So. Yeah. Not pretty. We’ll explore that deeper when the final numbers so public later in the month though.

This is the one that surprised me a bit… inventory was down, but only by 70 in August (to 8,822), which is far less than the drop seen in July (514). I was figuring we’d have a far larger drop, but perhaps the July number was an outlier… or maybe the August number was… or maybe they both are, I don’t know.

In any case, with a significant drop in sales MoM, and small drop in inventory that will of course launch the absorption rate higher. We were at 6.4 in July, and assuming the sales adjustment falls inline with expectation (~1,285) that would put the absorption rate at 6.9. Again, not pretty.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,195
Since two years ago = -24.1% (-379)
Since one year ago = -29.5% (-499)
Since last month = -7.7% (-99)

Active Listings = 8,822
Since two years ago = -8.2% (-790)
Since one year ago = +36.9% (+2,377)
Since last month = -0.8% (-70)

Single Family Homes Median* = $350,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.5% (-$50,000)
Since one year ago = No Change
Since six months ago = -1.4% (-$5,000)
Since last month = -2.8% (-$10,000)

Condo Median* = $218,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -17.7% (-$47,000)
Since one year ago = -3.4% (-$7,617)
Since six months ago = No Change
Since last month = -5.2% (-$12,000)

Residential Average* = $325,588
Since peak (July ’07) = -8.6% (-$30,551)
Since one year ago = +2.0% (+$6,406)
Since six months ago = +2.8% (+$8,823)
Since last month = -1.3% (-$4,146)

Single Family Homes Average* = $372,253
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.3% (-$52,147)
Since one year ago = +1.2% (+$4,520)
Since six months ago = +0.7% (+$2,680)
Since last month = -1.8% (-$6,726)

Condo Average* = $232,230
Since peak (July ’07) = -15.4% (-$42,149)
Since one year ago = -4.2% (-$10,137)
Since six months ago = +0.3% (+$700)
Since last month = -3.4% (-$8,141)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

And the theme for July was ‘down’. Prices = Down. Sales = Down. Inventory = Down. The big story seems to be the SFH average which dropped faster than a Kardashian sister at a frat party, down over $12,500 in one month. Though this was not the record dive some were predicting, that distinction still belongs to November 2007, when it dove $14,839 from that October according to the new stats system (under the old system it was down a shocking $20,922).

So with the change in their stats system we’ve now got a real mess of numbers floating around, so I’m going to shake up how these are presented. So here are the SFH and Condo numbers, both averages and medians.

As noted earlier the SFH average took a big dive MoM, but is still north of where it was a year ago. The median was actually up $1,000 from June (and is up $10,000 from a year ago)… in the face of the big dive in average, we’ve got to figure the high-end of the market is starting to fall off a bit. It was widely speculated that the high-end was really active through the first half and kept the average up, so a drop has been expected, though perhaps not quite to this degree.

On the condo front, median figures are actually exactly the same as they were a year earlier and a month earlier. The averages were down a bit though, a little over two grand from June, and about $3,500 from a year ago. So things are rather tame here compared to their SFH brethren.

Here are their sales numbers as reported, though with their change in method it’s now hard to put much stock in these anymore as they’re going to be revised up later. The preliminary number is 1,294, the lowest total for July since 2000, the next lowest 1,459 in 2007, though this number will be revised, so it may-or-may-not surpass that mark.

As we don’t have the final numbers anymore, I’m doing away with the absorption rate for now. If the final numbers are released later I’ll update it then, but at this point who knows if that will happen.

We still have inventory though, and they changed course in a big way in July, dropping over 500 from June after a record tying six months of gaining at least 500 per month. Inventory has actually been building over the month, but it seems the end of month wave of delistings more than wiped those out. We can probably expect inventory to continue dropping by this much (or more) for the rest of the year, and we’ll follow patterns similar to ’08 and ’09.

It appears we’ve hit the typical summer slowdown on all fronts now, and we can expect to see all these figures continue to slide to varying degrees until we hit the New Year.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales* = 1,294
Since two years ago = -26.5% (-467)
Since one year ago = -41.8% (-929)
Since last month = -15.9% (-245)

Active Listings = 8,892
Since two years ago = -15.3% (-1,609)
Since one year ago = +34.9% (+2,300)
Since last month = -5.5% (-514)

Single Family Homes Median* = $360,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -10.0% (-$40,000)
Since one year ago = +2.9% (+$10,000)
Since six months ago = +1.1% (+$4,000)
Since last month = +0.3% (+$1,000)

Condo Median* = $230,000
Since peak (July ’07) = -13.2% (-$35,000)
Since one year ago = No Change
Since six months ago = +3.6% (+$8,000)
Since last month = No Change

Residential Average* = $329,734
Since peak (July ’07) = -7.4% (-$26,405)
Since one year ago = +1.6% (+$5,245)
Since six months ago = +4.7% (+$14,951)
Since last month = -1.7% (-$5,663)

Single Family Homes Average* = $378,979
Since peak (May ’07) = -10.7% (-$45,421)
Since one year ago = +1.5% (+$5,685)
Since six months ago = +3.1% (+$11,232)
Since last month = -3.2% (-$12,518)

Condo Average* = $240,371
Since peak (July ’07) = -12.4% (-$34,008)
Since one year ago = -1.4% (-$3,498)
Since six months ago = +0.6% (+$1,365)
Since last month = -0.9% (-$2,273)

* Preliminary data, subject to revision

And they ain’t pretty. Sales are way down by any measure, and in a big way… inventory continuing to grow at a high clip… and prices took it hard on the chin month-over-month, and year-over-year declines have returned in the condo market.

Lets start with sales and inventory this time around. Not a surprise sales were down from last years record level for a June, but the degree to which was rather striking. Residential sales totaled 1,539 for the month, down 8.5% from last month and 40% from last year (39.7% to be exact). Again, that latter number should be taken with a grain of salt as last year was abnormally good, but sales were poor by any measure, being the worst June since 2002… and even 245 short of 2008 tally, a year generally conceded by the industry to be dismal.

Inventory also continues to climb, and at a rather fast pace to boot. Climbing another 626 last month to hit 9,406 in total. As we’ve discussed here before 500 is the threshold for abnormally high, and we’ve now been in that territory for six straight months, with equals the record set in 2007 when inventory first took off.

Also as a correction to the EREB news release, they incorrectly stated that the all-time peak for inventory was set in September ’07, but the actual peak was set in May ’08 at just over 11,000. I don’t think we’ll be hitting that mark this year, but 10,000 may still be in the cards.

Just from my own experience, it seems a lot of condos are starting to hit the market. I was driving around the west end, and there were a more than a couple complexes with those hanging “for sale” sign arrays, and there were so many they were starting to touch the ground.

Obviously with high inventory and low sales, we have ourselves a high absorption rate. We’re now above 6 months again, which is the highest June this decade, even worse than ’08, and the highest we’ve been since last February. Judging from this graph we’re about 2-3x what’s normal for this time of year. So, for those who were saying we were out of the woods a year ago… turns out, not so much, huh?

And now we’ve got to prices. There still seems to be action towards the higher end of the market, as the single-family average ($391,497) actually rose slightly from May, but the median ($359,000) took a pretty big hit, down $4,000. The median is actually down $11,000 in the last two months, about a 3% drop… which is an awfully steep trend if it continues, but I think April was a bit of a blow off, so probably skewed high making the drop look worse.

The single-family average is still up almost 6% from a year ago, but the median is now just 2.7% higher. Even with modest month-over-month declines, I don’t expect we’ll see any year-over-year declines until at least the fall, cause most of the gains were realized this past spring, which gives the YoY numbers a cushion.

Condos on the other hand, are not fairing nearly as well, having ceded their early spring gains, and are down YoY and MoM. The median was down 2.3% from May, dropping $5,500 to $230,000… which is down $8,000 from a year ago… and down $34,000 from it’s peak, which represents a 12.9% drop. The condo average of $242,644 fared a little better than the median YoY (down 1.8%), but a little worst MoM (down 2.4%).

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 1,539
Since two years ago = -16.9% (-313)
Since one year ago = -39.7% (-1,013)
Since last month = -8.5% (-143)

Active Listings = 9,406
Since two years ago = -13.0% (-1,411)
Since one year ago = +38.6% (+2,621)
Since last month = +7.1% (+626)

Single Family Homes Median= $359,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -10.3% (-$41,000)
Since one year ago = +2.7% (+$9,500)
Since six months ago = +2.2% (+$7,650)
Since last month = -1.1% (-$4,000)

Condo Median = $230,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -12.9% (-$34,000)
Since one year ago = -3.4% (-$8,000)
Since last month = -2.3% (-$5,500)

Residential Average = $335,397
Since peak (July ’07) = -5.4% (-$19,321)
Since one year ago = +2.2% (+$7,098)
Since six months ago = +5.1% (+$16,196)
Since last month = -1.4% (-$4,795)

Single Family Homes Average = $391,497
Since peak (May ’07) = -8.1% (-$34,531)
Since one year ago = +5.9% (+$21,638)
Since six months ago = +6.7% (+$24,736)
Since last month = +0.2% (+$914)

Condo Average = $242,644
Since peak (July ’07) = -10.8% (-$29,264)
Since one year ago = -1.8% (-$4,427)
Since six months ago = -0.6% (-1,530)
Since last month = -2.4% (-$5,882)

Haven’t touched on consumer bankruptcies in awhile, so with today’s release of the first quarter figures from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada (quite a mouthful, I hope they aren’t paying for business cards by the character…), it would be an optimal time to revisit the subject.

We’ll start with the national figures. Through March there has been 23,388 consumer bankruptcies in all of Canada. This is a tad high historically (we usually seem to average around 20,000 through 1Q), but is well below last years record tallies. This time last year we were already at 27,542, on our way to 116,381 for the year… both obviously way above anything we had seen before, but not surprising given the economic climate.

The reverberations from the economic crisis don’t seem too bad thus far in 2010 and that does provide some hope going forward as jobs are starting to slowly come back online… the flip side is though that Canadians weren’t just holding record levels of debt before the crisis, but also proceeded to pile it one over the last year, and with interest rates still at historic lows we are heading into uncharted waters with rates due to return to even just normal levels. So, even with things looking like they’re improving, interest rates are seemingly holding a gun to our heads, and the effects are still anyone’s guess.

Now just focusing on Alberta. Here we see through the first quarter that the number of bankruptcies is right in the normal range. Alberta too was coming off their highest bankruptcy total ever, though by only a slim margin (unlike nationally)… though, interestingly, through the first quarter last year we were still a fair bit below that record level. So, for whatever reason as the year continued the numbers got progressively worse.

This weekend I’m going to try to dig up some numbers of the dollar values at play last year. As we’ve found in the past, the number of bankruptcies are usually no indicator of the deficiencies involved. So, hopefully I’ll get my grubby little paws on those, and we’ll have ourselves a look-see.

The May resale numbers came out today, and they continue to sing the tune of a market changing direction. Sales slowed, inventory continued to build and the only demand appears to be for high end homes as other than the SFH average, prices were down across the board.

The growth of inventory slowed as predicted, but remains at a very high clip at +724 over Aprils ending tally. The dual-top pattern for the inventory spike has again repeated itself and we’ll likely see that number continue to slow through the summer, but I’ve been surprised at just how many listings continue to come online, so we may remain in the rarefied air of +500 month-over-month for a month of two yet. For those curious the current record for consecutive months with +500 or greater changes is six months (set in 2007), and we’re currently at five… so that dubious distinction can not just be equaled, but could even be bettered depending how June and July play out.

Like mentioned earlier, sales fell off while inventory continues to spike. Here we see sales appear to have peaked for the year in last month (probably in no small part due to the change in CMHC policies), and we came in at 1,682 in May. A little low historically, but not terrible (though it is the lowest May total since 2003). That tally is obviously dwarfed by the numbers put up in the boom years, and last year in light of the interest rate inspired national housing boom.

Inventory also obviously continues to rocket up. It’ll be interesting to see where it stops, seems my earlier prediction of ~9,000 will be a little low. It’s looking like it might have enough juice left in it to go up to perhaps even 10,000. Hard to believe just three years ago 5,000 was thought to be the absolute ceiling, and now we know it’s more than double that…. hell, in those three years we’ve only spend a grand total of two months below 5K, which oddly enough, was just before the current spike took off.

On the price front, all the hype of late about activity at the high end is quite true. It’s not too hard to see there is such goings-on when the single family home average is up over $5,000, while the median is down $7,000. Seems those taking the plunge, are going big. The jump in SFH average dragged up the residential average a tad… but everything else was down.

The Condo median dropped by $1,500 from April, while the condo average dropped by over $5,000, so unlike the SFH’s, there appears to be a lot of action in the mid-range of the condo market. The EREB seemed happy to trumpet that condo’s, and I quote, “dipped just two percent.” A drop of two percent is not small, especially not month-over-month (and annualized would be downright terrifying)… but of course they also lead their release saying sales compared favorably with 2008 levels, which I guess they hoped no own would look up. For those curious, they were roughly 8% lower than in ’08… which as best I can tell is only favorable if one says it’s not as shitty a comparison as with last May’s tally (which was 22% higher). But who has time for fact checking when you’re trying to shine a turd?!

And absorption rate… obviously with sales down and inventory way up, absorption rate continues to climb. We’re now back over five, and really climbing… unless sales kick it up a notch in the next two months, I’m suspecting we’ll actually set a new highs for the months of June and July (currently 5.84 and 5.89 respectively). So, no matter how they spin it, it’s looking like it’ll be a very weak summer for real estate… which could really leave some blood in the water come fall and winter when the market is at it’s slowest.

Finally, and as always, here are the hard numbers:

Sales = 1,682
Since two years ago = -7.6% (-139)
Since one year ago = -22.2% (-479)
Since last month = -3.3% (-58)

Active Listings = 8,780
Since two years ago = -20.2% (-2,226)
Since one year ago = +17.8% (+1,327)
Since last month = +9.0% (+724)

Single Family Homes Median= $363,000
Since peak (May ’07) = -9.3% (-$37,000)
Since one year ago = +6.0% (+$20,500)
Since six months ago = +3.7% (+$13,000)
Since last month = -1.9% (-$7,000)

Condo Median = $235,500
Since two years ago = -5.8% (-$14,500)
Since one year ago = +2.4% (+$5,500)
Since last month = -0.6% (-$1,500)

Residential Average = $340,192
Since peak (July ’07) = -4.1% (-$14,526)
Since one year ago = +4.2% (+$13,860)
Since six months ago = +6.8% (+$21,710)
Since last month = +0.3% (+$878)

Single Family Homes Average = $390,583
Since peak (May ’07) = -8.3% (-$35,445)
Since one year ago = +6.2% (+$22,911)
Since six months ago = +6.1% (+$22,565)
Since last month = +1.4% (+$5,224)

Condo Average = $248,526
Since peak (July ’07) = -8.6% (-$23,382)
Since one year ago = +1.5% (+$3,792)
Since six months ago = +7.2% (+$16,842)
Since last month = -2.1% (-$5,262)